Predictions
Series-level win probability from the pre-match logit (Elo + rest + mode), combined across a best-of-5 via a forward probability walk. See the methodology for the model.
No upcoming matches scheduled.
Every prediction is logged before the match is played and scored once it completes — 262 matches scored so far. The Brier score and reliability chart below come from that log, not a live model re-check.
Brier Score
0.271
Lower is better · 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip
0.000.25 coin flip0.50
This model · 0.271Naive favorite-only · 0.431
Reliability
262 matches scored since Stage 1
0%100%0%100%
Predicted probability →Dot size = matches in bin
